Prime minister Rishi Sunak has secured the backing of two key senior Brexiter cabinet ministers as he attempts to face down Tory critics of a deal to settle the row over Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit trading rules.
Chris Heaton-Harris, Northern Ireland secretary and former chair of the pro-Brexit European Research Group, has emerged as a key advocate for the outline deal. “He’s telling everyone how good it is,” said one senior Tory.
Heaton-Harris, highly regarded by fellow Brexiters, has been at the heart of negotiations on the deal; his colleagues say he remains fully behind the agreement taking shape with Brussels.
Meanwhile, allies of Suella Braverman, the home secretary and another former ERG chair, say she has no intention of quitting the cabinet over the deal, even though she has urged Sunak to fight for better terms.
However Steve Baker, another Northern Ireland minister who once described himself as a “Brexit hard man”, is seen by Sunak’s allies as a minister who could quit, having been excluded from detailed talks.
Baker declined to comment, but has told colleagues that he hopes the deal is one that he can support and that he would not be forced to resign. “It ought not to come to that,” he said.
The support of high profile cabinet Brexiters will be vital for Sunak as he faces mounting criticism of the outline deal from members of the ERG and Northern Ireland’s pro-UK Democratic Unionist party.
The deal seeks to cut friction on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, while addressing the “democratic deficit” of the protocol, which was part of Boris Johnson’s 2019 Brexit agreement.
A political declaration is expected to set out a role for the Stormont assembly in discussing new EU rules that apply to the region, which remains part of the single market for goods, and specify a limited role for the European Court of Justice in overseeing the deal.
The ERG and DUP were scheduled to meet at Westminster on Tuesday evening to discuss how they might respond to details of a deal, which Sunak wants to conclude as early as Thursday, but the timing could slip.
Sammy Wilson, the DUP’s chief whip, told the FT that his party’s discussion with Sunak in Belfast last week was “one of the worst meetings we’ve ever had”.
Wilson said the DUP, which is boycotting the Stormont assembly in protest at the Northern Ireland protocol trade rules, said the party would not “compromise on the union”.
Referring to last week’s meeting, Wilson said: “It was very tetchy. It was an attitude of “be grateful for what we have done for you, get back in the assembly like good boys and girls. It was patronising and almost abusive.”
Sunak’s problem is that the DUP speaks with many voices. After the same meeting Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the party leader, said that “on very important issues there has been real progress”.
Donaldson was expected to tell Tuesday night’s meeting at Westminster that it was important to get the right deal that would allow a restoration of Stormont, rather than rushing an agreement.
The prime minister’s allies say that it is key that the DUP does not immediately reject a deal. “The vital thing is that they don’t say No,” said one British official close to the talks.
Wilson said that what Sunak was proposing at present “will fall well short” but added that Donaldson would not be able to give an immediate definitive answer.
The DUP’s party officers and executive would consider the plan before deciding how to respond, including whether to go back into the Stormont assembly.
Meanwhile, the ERG indicated that it would not immediately welcome or condemn the deal, but would instead subject the legal text to scrutiny by its self-styled “star chamber”, chaired by veteran Eurosceptic Sir Bill Cash.
Number 10 has not yet decided whether to put the text to a vote in the House of Commons, although senior MPs believe that parliament would have to have its say on the proposals.
One former Tory cabinet minister claimed that if there was a vote, scores of Tory MPs might rebel against a deal if it failed to satisfy the DUP’s “seven tests” for judging reforms to the protocol, which include cutting border red tape and giving Northern Ireland a say over rules that apply in the region.
“The trouble is that it would be an accumulation of things,” the former minister said, arguing that supporters of former prime minister Boris Johnson might use the issue to try to destabilise Sunak.
Labour has said it would support Sunak’s deal in a vote, but the prime minister hopes that an agreement will ultimately command DUP support and — by extension — the backing of most of his MPs.
Maroš Šefčovič, the vice-president of the European Commission leading the talks, held a video call with James Cleverly, UK foreign secretary, and Heaton-Harris on Tuesday afternoon.
“Discussions on the protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland continue at high intensity,” he said in a tweet afterwards. “We remain in close touch, focused on finding joint solutions. Set to speak soon.”
While Šefčovič said he could see “the finishing line”, some EU diplomats fear that the longer Sunak waits before striking a deal, the more entrenched the opposition to an agreement will become.
“The longer he waits, the more difficult it becomes,” said one, pointing out that Brussels had hoped for an agreement on Wednesday. Now that timetable looks likely to slip to the weekend and beyond.
